Monday, January 30, 2006

Oscar Nominee Predictions

Most years I wait until the nominations and guess the winners; this year I'm gonna beat tomorrow's announcement and guess all nominations and winners. I know, I know: alert the media!

(Winner guesses are bolded; my pics are italicized; both are, well, both.)

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Walk The Line

Fifth is kind of open. Probably Crash, or The Constant Gardener. If the Academy is feeling a bit risque, maybe A History of Violence. But not freaking likely.

Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
David Straithairn - Good Night and Good Luck
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener

Actually, Ralph's spot is rather open, as well. Maybe Russell Crowe, if we can overlook his "Reach Out and Touch Someone with a swift phone to the head" act. Jeff Daniels won great reviews for The Squid and the Whale, and Joaquin Phoenix keeps showing up on critics lists, despite mixed reviews.

Ledger's too young, and too...weird in interviews. He's a relatively unknown quantity in Hollywood and getting a mini-Russell Crowe rep. Straithairn would've walked away with it, before Capote came out. Unfortunately for him, Hoffman looks like a lock.

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman - TransAmerica
Judi Dench - Mrs Henderson Presents
Laura Linney - The Squid and the Whale
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener

Not sure the Academy is really ready for TransAmerica's close-up, no matter how amazing Huffman is in every single film. And she really, really is. Can you imagine if she and husband William H. Macy have children that grow up to be actors? That kid's gonna be one powerhouse performer. Judi Dench is a perennial favorite, but her movie doesn't have the buzz. Laura Linney might sneak in here - she's another actress that never fails to give a great performance. But I'm guessing it's All-American Reese who did her own singing as Johnny Cash's better half who'll be trotting off with the statue. Rachel Weisz might also prove an upset. She's received lots of acclaim for her turn as Ralph Fiennes love interest.

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
George Clooney - Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard - Crash
Ed Harris - A History of Violence

Actually, I have no idea about the last spot. And if it were up to me, I'd give it to Clifton Collins Jr. or Chris Cooper for their work in Capote. But it's not, and I'm guessing Giamatti will take it. They really snubbed him last year for Sideways and a few years before that for American Splendor. Though they might want to recognize Clooney for his great work in Good Night and Good Luck. He's had a stellar year, and he's gonna lose Best Director to Ang Lee.

Best Supporting Actress

Catherine Keener - Capote
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
Brenda Blethyn- Pride and Prejudice
Amy Adams - Junebug

Williams isn't getting many awards. Keener was, and she had three really great performances this year, but things have cooled down. Blethyn's an Academy fave, like Judi Dench only less regal. I suspect they may mix it up a bit and give it to newcomer Adams for her hilarious, heartbreaking turn in Junebug.

Best Animated Feature

Corpse Bride
Wallace and Grommit

Yes, I think animated movies sucked bad enough this year for them to consider Hoodwinked in this category. And number me amongst those who don't care for that Wallace and Grommit show. I've no idea who will win, but Tim Burton's always great in my book.

Best Documentary

I have no idea! March of the Penguins, maybe. Murderball, if AMPAS had any. But this wasn't the docu year for me, so...your guess is as good as mine!

Best Director

A whole buncha names, like Clooney, Bennett Miller, Spielberg...

and one winner -- Ang Lee, for Brokeback Mountain.
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