Incendiary Advice

He's now the frontrunner for an Oscar Best Actor win, and it couldn't happen to a better actor (and reportedly overall nice guy). I think he's garnered all but two possible awards in the category so far --

Screen Actors Guild
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics
Chicago Film Critics
Golden Globe
Dallas Fort Worth Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
Online Film Critics
Satellite Award
Southeastern Film Critics
Toronto Film Critics
Iowa Film Critics
New York Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics

And maybe a couple I missed -- 17 in total and I hate deciphering acronyms late at night. :)

He's also nominated for the BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards.

Since my guesses always rest solely on intuition rather than figuring odds based on critics awards, I'm not certain, but it seems Hoffman's got more Best Actor nods than most previous years' frontrunners going into the AMPAS race. And again, I'm not sure that even matters. It does show he gave the performance of a lifetime.

Brokeback's Ledger still has an outside chance, and I'm sad that Straithairn's getting completely missed in the race. He did a great job as Murrow. But I think it's Hoffman's award, barring any major developments between Tuesday when the nominations are announced and final voting in February.

Which makes me very, very happy.

Hoffman's speechifying improved, too. From tonight's Screen Actor's Guild show:

"I think its important to say actors can't act alone," says Hoffman, "it's impossible unless you're doing a solo performance or something but its pretty impossible. But what we have to do in a competition like this sometimes its tough because what we really need to do is support each other and actors have to have each others backs. Its the only way to act well is when you know the other actors have your back. And these actors had my back and I hope they know I had theirs. Thank you."

philip seymour hoffman

Screen Actors Guild